Brexit: an erroneous prediction?

A reflection on the EU referendum paving the way for a new identity.

Following the results of the referendum, EU-UK relations have never been so uncertain. Dealing with the result in a state of anger and frustration, and the general uncertainty which precedes any ‘divorce’ negotiations follows leave the EU in a state of utter limbo making economic and political instability on EU level and UK look very likely. This leap into the unknown makes the challenges the EU is facing even more tedious: populist movements and heightened discussions call for immediate reform on EU agenda or the EU will lose ground. Needless to say it is still early to predict a long-term vision for the EU, therefore all one can do is wait for the dust to settle, although it is hard to overcome our regret, and disappointment at the outcome of referendum process.

The question is should we really all be surprised? We should have known it was a possibility, ever since David Cameron’s announcement to hold the referendum the country; little did we know that he was going to tear the country in two. The conflict between two sides, which resulted into a never-ending dilemma, the frustration for which led to even more confusion was only the anticipation of what we knew was going to be a life changing event. The climactic build up, the constant reading and keeping up-to-date with our chosen side of the campaign without really knowing at the time the extent of its effectiveness was the only way we could bring light to the dark tunnel of the unknown. When Nigel Farage got voted into Parliament and has ever since been faithfully rejecting one EU bill after the other, the EU dream in our head began to crumble but we still didn’t lose hope, or take the hint for that matter. Despite the lingering possibility of a leave vote flickering at the back of our minds nobody expected the turmoil of reality in the days to come.

On Friday 24^th June we woke up to a different country. A divided country, hit by a shower of media outbursts, but most of all a mental state of utter confusion and disorder. It seems that overall no one is really happy, not even the Leavers. Their beloved Ukip leader is now admitting to have lied about providing the NHS with 350bln, which constituted a large part of his campaign, and Boris Johnson all of a sudden steps down from PM leadership. Northern Ireland have expressed their own indignation and Scotland are now recruiting EU advice in the form of a standing council in order to strengthen EU relations and pave the way for potential agreements, first thing after the Referendum. They could not be further from achieving their dream of ‘getting our country back’ and making the realm into a ‘blessed plot’ again. The divide could not be stronger. Disappointment and frustration at this rejection of unity, Europe which was a symbol of peace at a time when unity makes force or should do at least, in order to combat threats such as terrorism, Europe which gave birth to the Erasmus generation, sudden betrayal of the European project our ancestors had dreamed of in search for freedom. Or simply expectations that this was going to be a crucial moment in history had finally begun to kick in.

The storm still hasn’t passed, people are still trying to find answers to questions, which according to Guy Verhofstadt lies in our history: Europe needs is ‘a healthy memory’, however is remembering what our forefathers did going to be enough? Either way there is ‘no turning back’ for the UK, a puzzled country who still have many questions to address: will they be able to achieve stability without the EU, who are only waiting for article 50 to be triggered to kick off with the closing deals? Should we laugh or cry at Sadiq Khan and Nicola Sturgeon’s new secret ‘not-so-secret’ best friends handshake, showing their fresh wave of determination for independence or should we be worried at the prospect of even more division within a torn country? And what about the extremely delicate Irish border still haunted by a tumultuous past? Let us all hope there will be a soft landing to this giant leap into the unknown.

It is important to dwell on why this happened to shed light on those people, those who voted to stay in the Union to whom my heart goes to, who will still be wondering why their country would vote for such a thing, for a very long time. By now enough articles backed up by evidence such as statistics and graphs have been able to identify the traits, including age group, status and political beliefs of supporters of both sides of the referendum. On the one hand those filled with concerns over the lack of national sovereignty cannot help but remember a different time, ungoverned by Brussels bureaucratic laws and not affected by these specifically designated ‘bunches of migrants’ which exclude the forever present waves of immigration as a result of Commonwealth; the tendency to blame the lack of jobs on immigration as opposed to mismanagement is therefore the result of this nostalgia. With education being one of the primary areas attracting EU funding it is hard to justify Michael Gove’s attempts at eliminating GCSEs due to ‘unavoidable cuts’. On the other hand we have a new generation, the roaming kind, filled with love for language learning, multiculturalism and travel, determined to share acquired European culture and knowledge with their compatriots: knowledge which may not be so accustomed to the two previous generations.

Understanding if this pre-existing division within the UK is to blame for the upsetting outcome, or if it was all a matter of timing is equally essential. Had the referendum happened at any other point in history, even 5 to 10 years ago would the vote have been the same? With the financial recession and fear of terrorism sweeping waves of populism throughout Europe, a mixture of fear and fury certainly played its part over the years, backed up by a more recent chaotically undemocratic setting following the murder of Jo Cox Labour MP, Yvette Cooper’s death threats. Regardless of any of these reasons it is safe to say that the anger and violence surrounding the referendum was certainly the result of a lack of EU awareness. It seems that European identity doesn’t seem to have ever fit the country as a whole, without counting the exceptions. One may argue that the European dream never effectively reached the UK as it did other countries. So is European identity ever going to become a part of the UK?

This aspect is crucial. How effective has Britain been in spreading EU knowledge and culture? Was the Remain campaign fueled by civil society movements? Were there any outstanding events or conferences which particularly stood out, perhaps hosted at Parliament? No. Is it really the UK? Well actually maybe it is: the campaign has been set on casting light to the one big financial compromise this Remain vote was set to achieve. It certainly did not reflect the celebration of European spirit. It did not lead to the subtle insertion of this new identity, without feeling like. An identity linked to multiculturalism, centralized values, and multiple nationalities becoming one and the same, almost subversive to a British tradition highly based on an obsession with the past. An identity based on background and upbringing more than values. Shared everyday values which have never been rejected but perhaps taken for granted and never really understood as potentially being associated to the result of a unified Europe. Yet it is all coming out in the wash. The aftermath of June 23rd has been sadly but slightly comically framed by the definition of ‘EU’ reaching uncountable hits on Google. Perhaps they really are finally coming to terms with reality, and discovering a new world which they have now lost.

Even though it was in Winston Churchill’s mission ‘to forget the feuds of a thousand years’, Europeanism truthfully never really landed on UK grounds. So could this referendum really open their eyes just now, and turn into arguably one of the most effective bouts of education the British people could have ever had?